Two phases meet on the same number
Kuwait appliance demand is sized through two phases that converge on the same annual figure for each line.
Phase 1 · Bottom-up (field):interviews with factories, retailers, and professionals → a granular channel × line × season table (Best, X-Cite, Eureka, Hasawi, Other Stores, panel manufacturers) that sums to each line's national total. Lives inhasawi.sqlite::market_size_bu.
Phase 2 · Top-down: 2025-12 buildings tab6 with 91 unit types × per-PACI-type appliance coefficient ÷ per-segment replacement cycle → annual demand LO–HI per line. One python model per product underscripts/hasawi-*-model.py.
The convergence verdict per line shows whether Phase 1 sits inside Phase 2's envelope. AC is confirmed entirely via Phase 2 (retail-dominated channel mix; no separate bottom-up needed). Sandwich Panels remain reported in nameplate capacity (m²/yr) per producer datasheets — a different metric, not unit-sales.
Benchmark (validated 2026-05-07): within each PACI LO–HI envelope a single point-of-truth is fixed per line based on consumer + unit-allocation behaviour (water-cooler benchmark = LO floor since offices use bottled water; water-heater + refrigerator = HI ceiling per universal household coverage; AC = LO–HI average). Headline figures, Hasawi share %, and brand allocations all read off this benchmark.
Where each line sits between bottom-up (Phase 1) and top-down (Phase 2)
| Line | Bottom-up · field | Top-down · benchmark | Hasawi units | Hasawi share (vs benchmark) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Conditioners | — | 292,040LO–HI average | — | — | Confirmed via PACI |
| Refrigerators | 149,500 | 155,721HI ceiling | 2,800 | 1.8% | Within band |
| Water Dispensers | 42,829 | 58,548LO floor | 11,000 | 18.8% | Below LO · -27% |
| Water Heaters | 305,150 | 379,796HI ceiling | 50,000 | 13.2% | Within band |
Bottom-up = sum of channel rows in hasawi.sqlite::market_size_bu (Ali field-research aggregation). Top-down · benchmark = the validated point per line within the PACI LO–HI envelope (basis chosen on consumer + unit-allocation behaviour — see top-down-totals.json). Hasawi share computed against the benchmark so it stays comparable as Phase 1 estimates refine. Full per-line channel breakdown lives on the Top-down × Bottom-up tab.
Water heaters is the only line where Hasawi has share at scale
Budget-tier products move 2.4–6.7× faster than premium
Computed live from 500priced SKUs in the weekly tracking xlsx, bucketed into price terciles within each line. Hasawi's tier-positioning is read from the catalog avg price against those terciles — Premium for refrigerators and water coolers (slowest tier), Budget for water heaters (fastest tier). That match between budget pricing and the high-velocity segment is the structural reason water heaters is the only winning retail line.
| Category | Hasawi sits in | Tier | Price range | SKUs | Avg sold/wk | vs Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Conditioners | — | Budget | ≤ 184 KWD | 68 | 10.8 | 6.7× |
| Mid | 184–289 | 68 | 3.8 | 2.4× | ||
| Premium | > 290 | 69 | 1.6 | 1.0× | ||
| Refrigerators | Premium | Budget | ≤ 120 KWD | 91 | 5.9 | 5.2× |
| Mid | 120–224 | 91 | 3.3 | 3.0× | ||
| Premium | > 229 | 92 | 1.1 | 1.0× | ||
| Water Dispensers | Premium | Budget | ≤ 45.0 KWD | 7 | 7.9 | 3.1× |
| Mid | 49.9–74.9 | 7 | 7.3 | 2.8× | ||
| Premium | > 89.9 | 7 | 2.6 | 1.0× | ||
| Water Heaters | Budget | No weekly tracking signal. Hasawi at 19.0 KWD — field-validated by X-cite (100% of X-cite WH volume is Hasawi). | ||||
| Sandwich Panels | — | No weekly tracking signal in this line. | ||||
Channel mix, retailer breakdown, and brand leaderboards
Each product-line page carries its own consolidated channel + retailer breakdown, brand leaderboard, and velocity tracking. The brand × channel × operator decomposition from the workbook lives in the appendix.